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Old 22 December 2008, 16:11   #1
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Long Range Forecast

Can any of you guys give a thumbs up to a long range weather site that seems to get it right, I've been trying a couple, and I have a trip to make through the Scottish Highlands next week or two, out to the West coast in an HGV, but cant afford to get caught out if it all goes tits up. I can move my dates around so, some forward planning is where I'm at (I know its a bit of white gloves and black stick but any help is grist to the mill)
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Old 22 December 2008, 17:01   #2
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It's as likely to be wrong as it is to be right!
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Old 22 December 2008, 17:38   #3
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Originally Posted by Bigmuz7 View Post
Can any of you guys give a thumbs up to a long range weather site that seems to get it right, I've been trying a couple, and I have a trip to make through the Scottish Highlands next week or two, out to the West coast in an HGV, but cant afford to get caught out if it all goes tits up. I can move my dates around so, some forward planning is where I'm at (I know its a bit of white gloves and black stick but any help is grist to the mill)
You could try www.ECMWF.int - Deterministic Forecast. Useful info but use with caution at long range!!!

You should note these give different projections for a given day depending on where the prediction starts. Choose the day you want to know about and then run through several base dates. Depending on how 'jumpy' the different projections are, gives you an idea of likely outcome.

It's a bit of a professional forecaster's tool but can be handy.
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Old 22 December 2008, 19:05   #4
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It's as likely to be wrong as it is to be right!
where did you find one that was that accurate?
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Old 22 December 2008, 22:28   #5
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where did you find one that was that accurate?
The Canadian national weather forcasting system boasts a long range accuracy rate of 52% I believe. And it only cost something like $300 million a year to maintain. Now that's value for money~
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Old 23 December 2008, 07:03   #6
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How long do you call long term?

Hello Bigmuz7

I trust you are keeping well - I noticed from various threads the problems you had with transom etc. sorry to hear that.
I think the last time we met was on the 'fundraising' trip around the clyde lifeboat stations. I was a guest on Craig C boat. The day all the stations were closed!

The best we have found is 6 days and that comes from xcweather.co.uk
It is aimed at light aircraft pilots and I am very pleased with it.
I have found nothing longer (more reliable).
Cheers and seasons Greetings
Paul & Bryn
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Old 23 December 2008, 10:28   #7
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QUOTE=Stoo;275807] The Canadian national weather forcasting system boasts a long range accuracy rate of 52% I believe. And it only cost something like $300 million a year to maintain. Now that's value for money~ [/QUOTE]

Ah, so if they spent $600m a year they would get it right all the time then?
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Old 23 December 2008, 13:21   #8
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Thanks for that guys

Quote:
Originally Posted by jwalker View Post
It's as likely to be wrong as it is to be right!
Jw .. you get a big for that...

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Originally Posted by RichardB View Post
You could try www.ECMWF.int - Deterministic Forecast.
It kept saying I needed a valid certificate to access the data Richard, I messed with my security settings, but it wouldnt allow a non verified /unvalidated Java download to install no matter what I set my browser to, I'll have another go later

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Originally Posted by Paul Beaurain View Post
Hello Bigmuz7

I trust you are keeping well - I noticed from various threads the problems you had with transom etc. sorry to hear that.
I think the last time we met was on the 'fundraising' trip around the clyde lifeboat stations. I was a guest on Craig C boat. The day all the stations were closed!

The best we have found is 6 days and that comes from xcweather.co.uk
It is aimed at light aircraft pilots and I am very pleased with it.
I have found nothing longer (more reliable).
Cheers and seasons Greetings
Paul & Bryn
Yes I'm fine thanks Paul, as I trust you are, together with your new craft Yes I remember our day well, a little damp at times but a great day out all the same, those Redbays know how to punch through the sea & weather dont they? You must be well pleased ! Although as always, the biggest challenge is usually finding a pub that can accomodate a sudden arrival of a bunch of togged up and hungry ribsters at lunchtime

xcweather looks pretty good , it is actually showing the same picture as the few other sites I've tried but with more detail, which is gratifying. A week or so was the best I was looking for, I suppose all will gather the same data, but I wondered perhaps if some sites have better forecasting models than others perhaps

Cheers
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