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Old 10 October 2009, 10:36   #1
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Why can't they even get "close" with weather forecasts?

Ya ya, I get that it's a bit complicated and all, but you would think that they might come close...

It's a long weekend here in the Great White North. Our summer is coming to a close. It has been miserable and raining for the past two weeks and I haven't had the boat off of the trailer in almost three weeks...

So on Thursday, "they" were predicting squalls for Friday, but ending at midnight, followed by three days of clear skies, very light winds and calm seas. As a result, we started to make plans for a trip to Killarney, to camp for a couple of days.

As of last night, the forcast was still great, although they were now calling for increasing winds by noon Monday... We continued to pack.

So this morning, I woke up to clear skies, and no wind at all. The lake was perfect. We just finished packing, the boat is loaded and fueled up. All that's left is a trip to the liquor store to refill the "first aid kit". And of course being the responsible boater I am, I flipped on the marine radio to get a last-minute forecast:

"For northern Georgian Bay, winds increasing to 20 knots by noon Saturday. Expect winds to 30 knots Saturday evening with rain and the possibility of thunder squalls. Small craft warning in effect, increasing to gale warning this evening...

"For Sunday, rain, heavy at times, winds 30, diminishing to 20 knots. Wave height 3 metres. Sunday afternoon, winds increasing to 30 knots, rain. Gale warning in effect.

"Monday, rain, strong winds, wave height 2 metres..." Ugh.

So I guess I'll go unpack the boat... Three metre waves in the Great Lakes are downright nasty. And with a crossing of at least 55 miles each way... not a lot of fun.

How is it that they can't predict weather for more than about 6 hours with any reliability?

Having said that, they might be totally wrong again. I could sit her Rib-netting and the weather will be great all weekend... and I'll be even more P*ssed...

Should I just go and suffer the consequences?

I want a do-over for the summer...

Rant over. Thanks, I feel better. Going diving now... close to home.
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Old 10 October 2009, 11:43   #2
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Hi Stoo sorry about your cancelled trip. The story is much the same over here the summer was non exsistant!! Far too much rain. There is something wrong with their ability to forecast is it that they are trying to soften the blow of more bad weather, I don't know I more prefer a correct attempt at the weather so we could plan a trip.
Hope you get a blast before winter comes. I brought mine up 2 weeks ago.
Cheers
Billy
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Old 10 October 2009, 12:12   #3
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Same here. Shitty weather all summer.

Boat out less this year than last.

Looking for a good weekend at end of October -------- pleeeese!!!!
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Old 10 October 2009, 16:19   #4
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We just got back in from the lake and they did get THIS forecast right... As the old-timers in town say... "She's blowin' a gagger..."

We are fairly close (as weather patterns go) to the eastern end of Lake Superior. The updated forecast up there calls for 45 knot winds, rain or snow showers, 4 metre waves AND waterspouts... Tomorrow should be delightful...

Where's my grog...
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Old 11 October 2009, 13:48   #5
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If you lied like that in any other profession you would be sacked

Just like
Accountants!
Solicitors!!
Politicians!!!
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Old 12 October 2009, 06:51   #6
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Learn how to use synoptic charts..

Learn how to use synoptic charts and satelitte imagery and create your own forecast... can blame anyone else then..
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Old 12 October 2009, 11:38   #7
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Originally Posted by hobbit555 View Post
If you lied like that in any other profession you would be sacked

Just like
Accountants!
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Politicians!!!

Thought it was part of the job description for a politician to blatently lie?
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Old 12 October 2009, 11:48   #8
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It's a long weekend here in the Great White North.
Happy Thanksgiving, Stoo (and all other Canadian paticipants)

Sorry to hear about your meteorological disappointments.

Have a good holiday nonetheless.

But, yeah; know what you mean as far as weather "predictions" (they should just come out can call tham WAG's.)


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Old 17 October 2009, 13:05   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jyasaki View Post
Happy Thanksgiving, Stoo (and all other Canadian paticipants)
Thanks JYK... In spite of the weather last weekend... turkey, fixens and family made for an enjoyable enough time! The weather is great this weekend... and I am in the big city. B*ggered again!
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Old 17 October 2009, 14:10   #10
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A good few years ago I remember the Met Office seemed to always get the weather RIGHT - prob back in the late 90s and early 2000s. Now either the weather has gone nuts (but British weather has always been nuts) or they are too busy employing all sorts of politically correct people who have bugger all to do with weather forecasting.

Just looked at their timeline - it seems in 2003 they moved to new offices AND brought in a new computer - newest isn't always best!!!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporat.../timeline.html
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